So, it looks like the elections are over. I may be biased but my feeling is that Labour (50 seats) has a better chance of forming a government than National (49 seats). Click more to find out why.
Although I disagree with the divisive nature of the Maori party, I am a little amused at the fact that, in order to form a successful government, one of the major parties is going to have to deal seriously with the Maori party. This MMP at work: I may not agree with the Maori party but I do agree with giving them a voice anyway.
If I were Helen Clark, I would form a coalition with:
- NZ First (7 seats)
- Though nothing would have pleased me more to see Winston languish below the 5% threshold, the fact of the matter is that he does appear to have the support of some so-called middle New Zealanders. He also agreed to support the largest party (like that means anything coming from his mouth).
- Maori Party (4 seats)
- Keep your friends close but your enemies closer. The Maori party are an unknown quantity, I would want to keep them close to make sure they don’t play silly-buggers with our country’s future
- United Future (3 seats)
- Ever the voice of Reason, Peter Dunn and his cronies will pull Labour further towards the centre in the eyes of the public and will hopefully be a balance to the influence of the left-leaning parties
- Progressive (1 seats)
- Because Jim Anderton has nowhere else to go
I would leave the Greens (6 seats) to support me with confidence & supply. Because, quite frankly, they are single-issue people and I doubt they would find much support for their single issue on the right. Also, the idea of them making serious policy makes me feel a little queasy.
That leaves the Nats with themselves (49 seats) and Act (2 seats). That makes the split 51 versus 65, with 6 in the cold.
If Winston reneges on his agreement to support the largest party, then Labour may have to go to the greens, but the fact of the matter is: Labour has far more choices than National. Single-party politics is over, Don, you have to play nicely with the other kids in the sand pit or you’ll be voted off the island.