Election 2005

So, it looks like the elections are over. I may be biased but my feeling is that Labour (50 seats) has a better chance of forming a government than National (49 seats). Click more to find out why.

Although I disagree with the divisive nature of the Maori party, I am a little amused at the fact that, in order to form a successful government, one of the major parties is going to have to deal seriously with the Maori party. This MMP at work: I may not agree with the Maori party but I do agree with giving them a voice anyway.

If I were Helen Clark, I would form a coalition with:

NZ First (7 seats)
Though nothing would have pleased me more to see Winston languish below the 5% threshold, the fact of the matter is that he does appear to have the support of some so-called middle New Zealanders. He also agreed to support the largest party (like that means anything coming from his mouth).
Maori Party (4 seats)
Keep your friends close but your enemies closer. The Maori party are an unknown quantity, I would want to keep them close to make sure they don’t play silly-buggers with our country’s future
United Future (3 seats)
Ever the voice of Reason, Peter Dunn and his cronies will pull Labour further towards the centre in the eyes of the public and will hopefully be a balance to the influence of the left-leaning parties
Progressive (1 seats)
Because Jim Anderton has nowhere else to go

I would leave the Greens (6 seats) to support me with confidence & supply. Because, quite frankly, they are single-issue people and I doubt they would find much support for their single issue on the right. Also, the idea of them making serious policy makes me feel a little queasy.

That leaves the Nats with themselves (49 seats) and Act (2 seats). That makes the split 51 versus 65, with 6 in the cold.

If Winston reneges on his agreement to support the largest party, then Labour may have to go to the greens, but the fact of the matter is: Labour has far more choices than National. Single-party politics is over, Don, you have to play nicely with the other kids in the sand pit or you’ll be voted off the island.